The hottest aniline Market bottoms out and stands

2022-07-24
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Aniline Market bottoms out and stands ready for a rebound. There is still strong support for the market.

recently, the domestic aniline Market has experienced a round of adjustment of rising and falling. The domestic mainstream transaction price dropped from 11000 yuan (ton price, the same below) in early March to 10100 yuan in April, a month on month decrease of 8%. The ex factory price of some enterprises has even fallen below the 10000 yuan mark, approaching the production cost line. The reason is still the weakness of the upstream, the reduction of downstream demand, and the artificial bearish, forming a lower consolidation market. However, due to the current high international price of pure benzene, which once again caused the domestic and foreign pure benzene upside down market, and the positive impact of higher domestic nitric acid, there is still strong support for the future market of aniline, and the momentum of sustained weakness in the short term is not strong. With the start-up of downstream enterprises in the second quarter, it is expected that repairing the bottom standby rebound will become the mainstream trend for some time in the future

-- the decline of raw materials has restrained the market from weakening, and the downstream reduction has suppressed the market. In early March, the domestic pure benzene was impacted by the rise of international pure benzene and the domestic short-term replenishment of inventory. In order to ensure the high accuracy of the experimental data this year, it began to fall rationally due to the negative effects such as the expected growth of downstream demand and domestic increment. At the end of March, the listing price of Sinopec fell to 8200 yuan, and in some regions it fell to 8000 yuan, a drop of more than 8% in the current month. Although the Japanese earthquake once supported the domestic market in the short term, it did not change the imbalance between supply and demand of domestic pure benzene in the short term, but slowed down the decline of domestic pure benzene. Therefore, based on the practice of price adjustment of aniline with pure benzene, it is natural to contain the aniline Market, and this round of adjustment is basically synchronized with pure benzene, and the price adjustment is within a controllable range

in addition to the driving factors of pure benzene, the subjective and objective factors of the downstream market also played a role in suppressing the market. The main subjective factor is that some domestic traders sell goods at low prices, which makes the air atmosphere stronger. It is understood that in the middle of March, some traders were optimistic that the international pure benzene could increase the amount of materials that were bonded together. They bought some aniline and waited for the market to rebound in order to make short-term profits. However, affected by the continued softening and bearish domestic pure benzene Market in the late days, some traders made losses and cashed out, which further accelerated the speed of market adjustment; The objective factors are mainly reflected in the demand. MDI enterprises, as the main downstream consumer of aniline, basically produce and use their own products. However, affected by the bearish atmosphere in the market, rubber additives enterprises also failed to increase the operating rate as expected, resulting in a reduction in the objective demand, which comprehensively led to a decline in the market

-- the price drop approaches the cost line, and the narrow range consolidation forces enterprises to limit production. According to statistics, the bottom line of the market has reached a new low in the past two years, and the market price is close to the production cost. Some enterprises even lose money due to the high purchase price of raw materials and low product price. According to the listing price of Sinopec pure benzene at the end of March of 8200 yuan and nitric acid at a high level, if the market price of aniline is lower than 10000 yuan, the profit margin of the enterprise will be very small, which is also one of the reasons why some aniline enterprises use hydrogenated benzene to reduce costs. Affected by this, the operability of dealers has been greatly reduced. In the short term, there is little room for artificial speculation by dealers, and the market has formed a typical narrow consolidation pattern

on the premise that there is little room for price operation, only by adjusting the market supply to ensure price stability, can enterprises not enter the state of disorderly competition. This forces domestic aniline production enterprises to limit production and protect prices. At the same time, in order to avoid the phenomenon of high purchase price of raw materials and low sales price of products, most enterprises implement the operation mode of fast in of raw materials and fast out of products, and basically adopt the "zero inventory" strategy for both raw materials and products. However, this operation mode mainly deals with the short-term behavior when the market fluctuates sharply, and it is expected that the consolidation cycle will not be too long

-- the future market support of raw materials is still strong, and the downstream is expected to restart. It is understood that if the friction surface of the sample produces large plastic deformation during the friction process, the closing price of FOB Korean pure benzene at the beginning of April is $1155.5, while for the domestic mainstream price of 8000 yuan, the market upside down degree is expanded, and the price difference between the internal and external markets is more than 800 yuan, which is bound to provide a strong backing for the recovery of the domestic pure benzene market. In addition, the domestic nitric acid price is running at 1800 ~ 2000 yuan, the market is strong, which has also formed a strong cost support for aniline, and the space for falling back and finishing is limited

it can be seen from the operation law of aniline Market over the years that the demand growth of downstream enterprises in April is an opportunity for the recovery of aniline Market. Although downstream industries such as MDI, rubber additives and dyes have delayed the start-up time, it is understood that these downstream and downstream products are in a low inventory state. With the gradual recovery of the terminal market, the operating rate of enterprises is bound to be improved, which is also an opportunity for the aniline Market to hit the bottom in the second quarter. In addition, the state macro controls investment, and some new aniline plants in China may not be put into operation on schedule, which will also provide some support for the market

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