The hottest natural rubber demand in China starts

2022-07-31
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In 2008, the commodity market experienced a rare bear market crash. The futures price of crude oil became the weather vane of the commodity market, especially in the Tianjiao market, which has a great correlation with crude oil. The futures price fell sharply. Since December last year, although the crude oil futures price has continued to decline, other commodities have shown signs of easing, especially the natural rubber market, which has formed an obvious rebound trend. After the Spring Festival when Jinan tried to pay attention to the maintenance of the gold pulling machine, the Tianjiao market started again. In particular, the domestic Shanghai Jiao market was significantly stronger than Japan Jiao. After an increase of more than 3% on Tuesday, there was a trading pattern on Wednesday, with an obvious long pattern. In terms of growth, the growth rate of Shanghai rubber has exceeded 50% since hitting the bottom in December last year, while that of Japan rubber has only exceeded 30%. The pattern of internal strength and external weakness is very obvious

under the background that the crude oil market did not stop falling and stabilize, the natural rubber market stabilized and rebounded in advance, and the increase was huge, showing some changes in the fundamentals of natural rubber. However, the domestic market was significantly stronger than the foreign market, which was related to the obvious start of domestic natural rubber demand. The author believes that under the situation of rising domestic demand, Tianjiao still has room to rise, but the continued poor global economic environment will restrict the rebound space of Tianjiao

the recent weakness of spot glue prices in Asia has attracted the interest of Chinese buyers. Singaporean traders said that after the long Spring Festival holiday, Chinese tire manufacturers had low inventory and great enthusiasm for purchasing. They were very enthusiastic about buying this week. It is reported that Chinese buyers signed an agreement on Wednesday to buy about 1000 tons of Indonesian Rubber recently shipped. In addition, Chinese buyers also purchased rubber from Thailand and Malaysia. It can be seen from the stock of Tianjiao in Shanghai futures exchange that the stock of Tianjiao futures has been reduced from 23380 tons before the holiday to 22945 tons. Although the decrease is small, the trend has begun to decrease, which also shows the increase of domestic demand. It can be seen that China's demand began to start after the long Spring Festival holiday, which is also related to China's automobile industry revitalization plan. The measures of reducing and exempting vehicle purchase tax have greatly stimulated domestic enthusiasm for car purchase and increased the demand for Tianjiao. In 2008, China imported 1.68 million tons of natural rubber, a year-on-year increase of 2.07%, which also shows that under the background of the financial crisis, China's natural rubber demand market is still very large, with 218 steel skylights hanging on top of steel skylights. It is believed that under the national policy of revitalizing the automobile industry and expanding domestic interest, the demand for natural rubber in China is expected to continue to increase in 2009, which will have a great support for the price of natural rubber in China

in addition, the US Senate voted on the 3rd to approve an amendment to provide tax relief for individuals who bought new cars in 2009 into its economic stimulus plan. The amendment will allow individuals who bought new cars to write down any interest expenses during 2009. In addition, car buyers are also allowed to use the state consumption tax paid when buying cars to offset tax liabilities. This also stimulated the rising trend of the natural rubber market

in addition to the domestic demand for Tianjiao starting to raise the futures price in Shanghai, the overall atmosphere of the domestic futures market after the Spring Festival also stimulated the interest of Tianjiao bulls. In the fourth quarter of 2008, after years of development, the central government has quietly launched another round of central investment plan, this time 130billion yuan. The new 130billion yuan central investment plan continues the general direction of 100billion yuan of new central investment in the fourth quarter of 2008, and is also part of the 4trillion yuan investment. Although the domestic GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year was only 6.8%, showing a significant decline, Chun can easily complete the experimental function; In addition, it is equipped with a special lengthened jaw for steel strands to ensure that before and after the break in the sample, China has continuously issued an industry revitalization plan. In addition, the 4trillion yuan plan for expanding domestic demand issued last year has enabled the market to see the growth momentum of China's economy, and investor confidence has begun to recover gradually. The domestic Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets also rose continuously around the Spring Festival, which fully shows the expectations of domestic investors for the domestic economic situation this year. According to the latest research report released by the chief economist of Nomura Securities in China, it is very likely that China's economy has bottomed out in the fourth quarter of 2008. Nomura Securities has been optimistic that China's economy will show a V-shaped trend in 2009. Investors are optimistic that the domestic economic situation is conducive to the recovery of the commodity market, which is also a favorable macro background for the Tianjiao market

while optimistic about the domestic economy, we should not ignore the general environment of the international economic situation. For the automobile industry, the situation abroad is even worse. Ford Motor Company's vehicle sales in January fell by 40%, and its light vehicle sales in the U.S. market fell to 93041 in January, which was the first time that the company's monthly sales fell below 100000 in many years. GM's light vehicle sales fell 49% in January, a larger than expected decline, and its January sales were also the lowest in the past five months. Nissan's sales fell by 30%, while Honda's sales fell by 28%. According to the Australian Automobile Industry Association, Australian automobile sales fell 6.3% to 67079 vehicles in January

to sum up, there are more fundamentals in the short-term natural rubber market. The demand of the Chinese market has started to stimulate the rising trend of natural rubber, but the poor external environment will limit the rebound height of rubber price to a certain extent. The continued sluggish price of crude oil will also drag down the price of Tianjiao. Investors should pay attention to risks

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