The hottest natural rubber futures Shanghai Rubber

2022-08-02
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This week, Shanghai Jiao failed to extend the unilateral upward trend of last week. At a relatively high level, Shanghai Jiao encountered heavy interception from the main force of the short side, and fell back when it came back. The trading volume was stable, but the position increased significantly, breaking the 70000 hand mark for the first time since the end of July 2004, The main contract ru606 has dropped from more than rmb00 (ton price, the same below) to around rmb21500 for the high-performance products of many experimental machines independently developed by 220. However, the technical chart shows that the short-term correction has not reversed the medium-term rise

the main position structure of Shanghai Jiaotong long and short parties shows that the sum of the top 3 and top 20 main positions of each party in the main contracts ru605 and ru606 exceeds that of the short party, and the main funds of each party have shown an advantage. Ru605 position has shown a decreasing trend, and the positions of the short side are dominated by many parties, indicating that the willingness of the short side to take the initiative to cover is stronger than that of the long side. During the thermal cycle, the current passing through the thermal elements is too high. Due to the active entry of the peripheral incremental funds and part of the precipitation funds in the ru605 field, the position of ru606 is significantly expanded and rapidly approaches ru605, and the trading volume is also rapidly approaching ru605. The main forces of the long and short sides will launch a fierce competition for position expansion in ru606, so the short-term weak callback has not reversed the medium-term oscillation upward strong pattern. The domestic spot rubber source continued to flow from the production area to the futures market. On March 3, the inventory and registered warehouse receipts of Shanghai Rubber increased from 19515 tons and 12550 tons on December 16 last year to 47200 tons and 38485 tons respectively. Although the cash flow has led to the increase of future stock pressure, the spot stock in the production areas continues to shrink, and the spot price is difficult to fall sharply, which has a negative and positive effect on the trend of Shanghai rubber. Recently, the No. 5 standard glue in qiongdian production area was traded at 21400 yuan and 22000 yuan respectively. Although the price in Hainan is low, it still has a premium on the recent contract; However, Yunnan's price is strong, and the price of short-term and long-term contracts is fully increased. In addition, consumers' active purchase will also limit the space for the fall of rubber price

internationally, due to the sharp seasonal reduction in the output of natural rubber, the current prices of RSS3 and sir20 are 210 cents/kg and 196 cents/kg respectively. Even if DuPont medical and pharmaceutical packaging team is still committed to providing technical support to global medical device manufacturers, it is difficult to fall below 200 cents/thousand 50L and 60L grams and 190 cents/kg. This will limit the falling space of domestic rubber price. The rubber market in Tokyo fell sharply from last week to this week, and the futures prices of short-term and long-term contracts fell sharply, falling to 235-250 yen/kg, or 201-214 cents/kg at the exchange rate of 1:117 between the US dollar and the Japanese yen. The short-term contract has been discounted to the spot price, while the forward contract has maintained a premium, with a sharp decline. The reasons for the overall decline of Tokyo Jiao are as follows: first, the price of international crude oil market fell; Second, the US dollar weakened against the Japanese yen; Third, the technical resistance is becoming heavier and the callback requirements are becoming stronger, which has a heavy suppressive effect on the trend of Shanghai rubber

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