The hottest natural rubber bear market is coming.

2022-08-06
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The approaching target of Tianjiao bear market points to the low of 18000 yuan in recent years

Tianjiao (21870, -815.00, -3.59%), which once again gives a clear development trend. Although the trend of Shanghai Jiao ru0809 contract is distorted due to capital control, the rational downward trend of forward contracts is continuously strengthening. The rumor that the ru0809 of Shanghai Jiaotong Rubber Co., Ltd. has been soft closing positions has become an increasingly unbearable pressure. The recent sharp fall in the international price of Shanghai Jiaotong Rubber Co., Ltd. has also opened up the overall decline in the domestic futures of Shanghai Jiaotong Rubber Co., Ltd., and the forward contract continues to widen the price difference between the forward contract and the recent contract. The heavy losses of Zhejiang funds in the soybean (4096, -106.00, -2.52%, bar) market have deeply affected their confidence in the Shanghai Jiao futures market. The market lacking obvious support continues to fall seasonally under the pressure of natural selling in the market. In the international market, the previous week, RSS3 and No. 20 standard glue on the Singapore Mercantile Exchange fell below US $3000, which became an important weak signal of Tianjiao

yesterday, Shanghai glue rose and fell, and the intraday high and low points reached 1000 yuan/ton. The trend of Japanese glue futures was basically the same as that of Shanghai glue. The continuous transformation of the fundamental supply and demand situation is an important factor to lay the foundation for the current market decline

with the recession of the global economy, commodities have completed the transition from high to low. Under the influence of the CRB index hitting the largest drop in a single month in July and the sharp drop in oil prices, Shanghai Jiaotong Rubber Co., Ltd. has come out of a round of volatile downward market under the domestic and foreign difficulties. Ru fragility of domestic Shanghai Jiao stock exchange - the extensibility is reduced due to physical or chemical changes. The high level of 809 contract refused to fall under the protection of funds, which was considered by the market to have an obvious trend of soft position pressing, while the forward contract ru0811/ru0901 returned rationally, and fell back with the downward trend of the external market quotation. If the high level of ru0809 contract does not fall for a long time, it is bound to cause greater downward pressure in the future market. Even if the Bulls undertake part of the firm offer, the downward pressure borne by the final forward contract may be released more intensively to effectively control the time force. However, the author believes that the probability that long funds will eventually be willing to undertake the real offer is not very high. Perhaps ru0809 will leave the market in the way of falling back to the spot market after entering the delivery month

with the Japanese glue approaching the sensitive 300 yen integer mark, while the US dollar glue has fallen below 3000 US dollars, the author concludes that the bear market in the Tianjiao market is basically confirmed through comprehensive analysis of various factors. At present, the FOB quotation of US dollar glue is US $2800, equivalent to the cost of composite glue of 24000 yuan/ton. In the domestic market, due to the distortion of ru0809 contract quotation, the reluctance of Hainan and Yunnan Agricultural Reclamation to sell domestic standard glue has been strengthened. On the one hand, the quotation of more than 27000 yuan/ton per day has led to unsalable standard glue in the production area. On the other hand, the cost of imported glue has been falling, which has finally led to a new inventory backlog cycle for domestic glue. Although the number of domestic glue entering the futures delivery warehouse is still small, However, the spot inventory is undoubtedly overstocked at the same time, and the pressure on the future market can not be underestimated

after entering August, the main production areas of natural rubber in the world have entered the peak period of rubber production, and a large number of newly listed rubber sources will be released in a centralized manner, which will gradually loosen the supply in the international market. At the same time, the declining rubber price makes downstream consumer enterprises more cautious in purchasing, and the state of buying up rather than buying down will continue. From the demand point of view, the excessive price hyped in the early stage is bound to restrain the downstream demand to a certain extent. From the perspective of the integration of international and domestic tire enterprises in 2008, many small and medium-sized enterprises were unable to bear the high price of raw materials and eventually shut down, so the high price of raw materials had a destructive effect on the downstream demand

to sum up, at present, global commodities are in an environment of sharp decline. Crude oil and gold (178, -7.71, -4.16, niezuoren is full of confidence in aluminum utilization), which have a far-reaching impact on Tianjiao, have an exceptionally weak trend recently. Therefore, the decline in rubber prices may be a rational price return process. The author boldly predicts that the falling target of glue price in 2008 should be at least 12. When the small angle reaches the preset value, the wire rod change experimental machine will break the low level of 18000 yuan/ton in recent years. It is estimated that the time will be around October, which is the time period with the greatest global supply pressure

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